NorsCape is a service providing company in Greater Cincinnati area. The VP hires Joey, a new grad from NKU, and asks him to analyze the demand data for a critical product, NS121, prepare a report about demand patterns, and create forecasting models and forecast for the following season. Joey extracts demand data from the database, which is provided in the instructions.

Part 1: Calculate demand forecast for Summer 2020 using the methods below (Show your work in the Excel page)

1. Moving average method (n=3). 
2. Exponential smoothing method (alfa=0.25). Your initial forecast for period 1 is the average of actual demand. 
3. Weighted moving average method (Weights: 0.45 for the most recent, then 0.30, then, 0.15, then 10).

Provide forecasts here.

Part 2: Find MAPE for all three methods. (Show your work in the Excel page.). While calculating any evaluation method using errors, start from the same period in order to have a better assessment.

Report

1. MAD and MSE for Moving average method . 
2. MAD and MSE for Exponential smoothing method. Your initial forecast for period 2 is the average of actual demand.
3. MAD and MSE for Weighted moving average method.

Provide MAD and MSE values here. Which method produces most accurate results? Why?

Part 3: Plot the time-series data (Show your work in the Excel page) and interpret the demand.

1. Do you see any pattern and any change in the pattern in the demand data?
2. Interpret the demand data in terms of seasonality
3. Interpret the demand data in terms of trend

Part 4: Right after Joey submits his report to the VP, Covid-19 happens, and half of the customers cancels their orders. VP, who is famously open to fresh minds, and knows that Joey follows recent developments in supply chains closely, asks Joey his opinion about how to move forward with NS121 production. What should Joey advise the VP to do? Why?